The Event: Q2 2026 results landed this morning alongside the 10-Q. Cash is $34.0M, up from $13.2M at year-end thanks to the May raise. Net loss was $6.9M for the quarter.
The Reaction: The stock closed at $2.48 today, down 29.7% from $3.53 on May 6 — the day after the financing and the 12-month CLOVER WaM data. The science hasn’t gotten worse. The capital structure has.
The Reality: When I called this a WATCH LIST and wrote that the Tranche A/B/C warrants “will act as a massive structural cap on near-term price momentum,” I was speculating about a future overhang. As of the July 7 stockholder vote, that overhang is no longer theoretical. It is exercisable.
The Receipts
The warrants are live. At the annual meeting on July 7, 2026, stockholders approved the May financing. That approval was the trigger condition on the Tranche A, B and C warrants. All three tranches — 13,206,026 shares each, 39.6 million total, struck at $2.65 — became exercisable that day. Add the 9.2M pre-funded warrants at $0.00001 and the 792,362 placement agent warrants at $4.1075, and the total warrant overhang is 52,654,122 shares against 9,452,108 shares outstanding as of August 11.
The implication: The fully-diluted picture is roughly 6x the current common count. That math, not the clinical data, is what the tape has been pricing since July.
The NDA slipped to mid-2027. My catalyst calendar had Q4 2026 for Phase 3 initiation. What management disclosed today: site activation has begun, sites “are expected to begin opening in the coming months,” first patient dosed in early 2027, and the accelerated-approval NDA submission is planned for mid-2027. With Breakthrough Therapy Designation, they anticipate a ~6-month review.
Why it matters: The FDA’s framework here requires the confirmatory Phase 3 to be enrolling at the time of the accelerated-approval decision. So the NDA cannot outrun the trial. Best case, an approval decision lands in late 2027 or early 2028 — roughly a year later than the timeline I was working from.
Going concern is back. The 10-Q states available liquidity of ~$29 million and says the company “may be unable to fund its operations under normal course beyond the second quarter of 2027.” The new risk factor is blunter than anything in the March 10-K: “Our existing cash and cash equivalents are not sufficient to execute our regulatory strategy. We view raising additional funds as a precursor to submission of an NDA.”
The implication: Management is telling you in writing that another raise comes before the NDA. The May package bridged the bankruptcy gap; it did not fund the finish line.
The burn is accelerating. R&D jumped to $4.56M in Q2 2026 from $2.39M in Q2 2025 — up 91% — driven by the Phase 3 startup ($153K) and the TNBC study ($790K). G&A fell 28% to $2.6M on reduced pre-commercialization spend. Six-month cash used in operations: $10.9M.
Bleichroeder went to 9.99%. A 13G filed today shows Bleichroeder LP holding 808,300 shares, 9.99% — up from the 6.08% I noted in the deep dive, and sitting precisely at the standard blocker threshold.
The ASCO data is the good news. A post-BTKi subset presentation at ASCO 2026 reported, in n=24 evaluable patients: 87.5% ORR, 79.2% MRR, 100% clinical benefit rate, median DOR 16 months (range 7.3–25.4), with 20% of patients exceeding 30 months of response.
The Scientific Reality Check
Let me translate the ASCO subset, because it’s the most important number in this release and it’s buried under the accounting.
